Fonte: SFGate - 28/02/2008 - Carolyn Said, Chronicle Staff Writer
Home prices nationwide plummet 14.1%
Home prices nationwide continued their steep decline in the first quarter, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index, an authoritative measure of the housing market.
Prices of single-family homes fell 14.1 percent in March nationwide compared with a year ago. It was the sharpest drop since the index began two decades ago.
In the San Francisco area, which Case-Shiller defines as the counties of San Francisco, Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco and San Mateo, the one-year price decline from March 2007 stood at 20.2 percent. The decline from February to March was 3.5 percent.
The index has substantial credibility because it measures price changes of the same houses over time. Other data based on sales figures are skewed by changes in the types of houses sold. However, the metro areas measured by the index are so large that the overall numbers ignore the intensely local nature of real estate. For the Bay Area, as for many other markets, the biggest problems are being felt in outlying regions, while the core of San Francisco is still relatively strong.
"Volume has gone down, there are fewer transactions, but I don't perceive prices as going down significantly," said Realtor Ilse Cordoni, sales manager of the South of Market office for Zephyr Real Estate. She specializes in Noe Valley, Haight-Ashbury and Bernal Heights, all areas where well-heeled families are buying homes, many of them in all-cash transactions, she said. "In areas that are languishing, it's where buyers are less financially endowed and more stretched," she said. "They have a harder time getting financing."
The Bay Area's year-over-year price slump was the sixth steepest of 20 major metropolitan areas tracked by the index. Las Vegas, where prices fell 25.9 percent, had the biggest slide, followed by Miami (24.6 percent), Phoenix (23 percent), Los Angeles (21.7 percent) and San Diego (20.5 percent).
The only metro region with a positive return was Charlotte, N.C., up 0.8 percent. The real estate slump, which was triggered by the subprime meltdown and gained impetus as mortgage lending tightened and foreclosures flooded the market, continues to affect consumer sentiment and spending, as people realize their homes are worth less than they had thought. However, some experts pointed out that price declines are actually a positive in other ways.
"Prices are falling because they were too high - ridiculously high," said Christopher Thornberg, principal of Beacon Economics in San Francisco. "They're now in the process of going back to a more normal level. Frankly, that's a good thing."
But that view was not shared by ratings firm Standard & Poor's, which releases the index. "The steep downturn in residential real estate continues. There are very few silver linings that one can see in the data," said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor's, in a statement. "Most of the nation appears to remain on a downward path, with 19 of the 20 metro areas reporting annual declines, and six of those now at negative rates exceeding negative 20 percent."
The 14 percent plunge nationally is five times larger than the biggest annual drop in the 1990-91 housing recession, which was 2.8 percent. The index uses January 2000 as a benchmark of 100. The current number for the San Francisco area is 168.38, meaning prices are still up 68 percent from eight years ago. The last time the local number was at that level was in May 2004. Thornberg said he thinks prices could return to year 2000 levels. Since Bay Area prices started accelerating in 1996, that would still leave people who bought homes a decade or more ago in decent shape.
"We're at a pace now to bottom out in early 2009," Thornberg said.
In other housing news, the Commerce Department reported on Tuesday that sales of new homes rose in April for the first time in six months, although the unexpected increase still left activity near the lowest level in 17 years.
Nationally, sales of new homes rose 3.3 percent in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526,000 units. But the government revised March activity lower to show an even bigger drop of 11 percent to an annual rate of 509,000, which was the weakest pace for sales since April 1991.
Economists say new-home sales will remain weak for some time as the housing industry struggles with falling prices and rising mortgage foreclosures, which are dumping even more homes on an already glutted market.
The Associated Press contributed to this report. E-mail Carolyn Said at csaid@sfchronicle.com.
This article appeared on page C - 1 of the San Francisco Chronicle
Sembra che nonostante la rapida riduzione dei tassi d'interesse da parte della Federal Reserve dal 5,25% al 2%, in appena 8 mesi di tempo, vedi tabella
Open Market Operations, la situazione stia letteralmente precipitando.
Vedi anche:
USA, I PREZZI DELLE CASE GIU' DEL 14% MALE ANCHE L'INDICE DI FIDUCIA
Marco