RICS Global Real Estate Weekly

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• Eurozone construction output data for October is due on Thursday 17th. Taking a three month moving average to smooth out the monthly volatility, output is down 9% y/y (and 16% below its December 2006 peak). However, this masks considerable variation between member states; output in Spain is down 16% y/y, whist in France and Germany, it is down by 9% y/y and up by 3% y/y respectively.

• In the UK by way of contrast, the construction sector has been hit harder than the Eurozone’s (in aggregate). There is, however, evidence to suggest that the worst is nearly over. Indeed, the Eurostat data for the UK shows that output is down by 14% y/y, but crucially, indicators of momentum suggest that output is now only falling at a 3% annualised rate (on a three month on three month basis). This chimes with the quarterly RICS Construction Market Survey, which showed continued but subdued falls in workloads during Q3 (the net balance improved to -6 compared to its trough of -47 in Q4 2008).

• 2010 is likely to witness a stabilisation in UK construction output. Indeed, workload expectations over the next 12 months in the RICS Construction Market Survey turned positive in Q3 for the for the first time since Q1 2008, although only moderately so with net balance of +9. At the Eurozone level, the outlook is less certain. Indicators of momentum suggest that the pace of contraction is accelerating in Germany, France and Spain. But such indictors are inherently short term and do not reflect recent positive developments in the economy, which may feed through to the onstruction sector later on in the year. Indeed, German and French GDP expanded for the second consecutive in Q3 (at 0.7% and 0.3% respectively, q/q), whist in Spain, GDP continued to fall but at a much slower pace than in Q2 ( -0.3% q/q vs. -1.1% in Q2).

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Segnalo questo report in italiano, datato 28 febbraio 2011...
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