Fiserv Case-Shiller Home Price Insights: For Many U.S. Markets, the Return to Peak Home Prices Will Be a Long, Slow Road
Bubble-era home prices won't be seen again until 2025 or beyond in California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada
Apr 08, 2010
investors.fiserv.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=457516
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The Fiserv analysis indicates the markets that experienced the greatest price bubble, including certain metro areas in California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada, won't see home prices return to peak levels until 2025 or later.
That represents an unprecedented market cycle that will last a full generation from the top of the market in 2006-2007. Many other markets, including major urban centers in the Northeast and industrial Midwest, may need to wait a decade or more until prices return to their market peaks.
"Nationally, Fiserv Case-Shiller data points to a further seven percent decline in home prices through the end of this year, with a prolonged recovery beginning early in 2011. In many markets, the emphasis is on the word 'prolonged,'" said David Stiff, Chief Economist, Fiserv. "
We see several powerful forces in the market that will severely hinder the housing recoveries of many metro areas, particularly in the hard-hit states of California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada. It will take these markets 15 or more years before home prices climb back to their peaks."
While the bubble markets have received the greatest attention, there are other dynamics affecting the pace of home price recovery in other regions. High levels of unemployment associated with the recession and the steep decline in manufacturing jobs has reduced housing demand and prices in many metro areas in the industrial Midwest, including Michigan, Indiana and Ohio.
Such markets, at the epicenter of job losses in manufacturing, are not expected to return to peak levels for at least five years, and potentially more than a decade.
i dreamed a dream....now life has killed the dream i dreamed
[Modificato da pax2you 23/06/2010 11:15]