inflation or deflation?
quello che non ha convinto molti
in italiano, avra' maggiore fortuna
in inglese?
Hi Alice,
you wrote:
Despite the huge increase in monetary growth, some are profoundly skeptical that inflation is going to pick out.
so I gotta tell you I'm one of those, and why.
Do you remember the good old boom times?
What happened at that time, considering the amount of money on the markets?
It happened that lots of people with 50K ($, £ or €) bought a house for 300K.
Banks created 250K "from nothing", that money came:
- formally from fractionary reserve or from debt with investors or from cartolarization;
- actually from the future, were is going to get back in 20-30 years, by monthly payments.
It also happened lots of people and/or lots of developers sold these houses, getting 300K "cash", right into their bank account.
So, for each house sold, say 50K in the buyer account were transformed into 300K in the seller account.
These additional 250K, belonging to future economy, were put into the markets, as the sellers were able to use that money the way they liked.
(Notice I won't mention home-equity-extraction at this time, but that would add up.)
So, when that large amount of money was "injected" into the markets?
I mean, when that "huge increase in monetary growth" happened?
In the "good old boom times", not after the crisis exploded and governments "inject" money into the banks.
Money injected in the last few months is not reaching the real economy, is just kept by banks to rise their liquidity and "core tiers" capitalization indexes.
Last few months injection are nothing compared to the money "stolen from the future" by the bubble.
Did you ever considered such a point?
Cheers.
Laplace77
per ora godetevi il video, il futuro ci dira'...
Inflation or Deflation?
PS: il testo e' interessante...
INFLATION OR DEFLATION?
By Merle Hazard
As we go through this recession
As farther down we slip
Will our central bank get traction soon, or
Will it lose its grip?
It’s a mini-Great Depression
Our markets went berserk
The Fed is printing trillions now, but
Will their efforts work?
Inflation or deflation?
Tell me, if you can
Will we be Zimbabwe
Or will we be Japan?
Credit markets came undone
And still are in distress
Will the dollars in my mattress
Buy much more next year or less?
It’s a desperate situation
When you’re at the zero bound
If a tree falls in a forest,
Is it making any sound?
New money makes inflation
If folks who have it spend
But if it only sits there,
Then the misery will not end
Inflation or deflation?
The choice is looking grim
I wonder what John Maynard Keynes would say
If we asked him
Inflation or deflation?
Tell me, if you can
Will we be Zimbabwe
Or will we be Japan?
PS: tra il serio e il faceto, la "canzoncina" e' citata da:
-
l'Economist
-
New York Times
-
NewsWeek
-
CalculatedRisk
-
Greg Mankiw
ed altri...
...alla lista manca pero' Bekko's, chissa' come mai...